Thursday, October 04, 2007

ME Politics. The effect of IAF's incursion over Syria.

YOU DON'T SEE THIS IN THE PAPERS OR ON TV. Not yet anyway. This is a personal analysis and possibly a valid one re the Israeli incursion into Syria and its relevance to the ME situation vs. Iran as well as,Syria, and Nth. Korea and Russia!

Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler
Wednesday, 19 September 2007

To The Point News -

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian
military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in
a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he
reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over
and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will
the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint
operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and
on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in
Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the
silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating
attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.
Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an
extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive
speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens'
Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not
Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why
would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war
perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the
Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most
Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending
vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft
interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,"
with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of
which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being
introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there
is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of
Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian
super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries
when that penetration took place on September 6th.


El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication
whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace,
zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us)
blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians
didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought
they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are
defenseless. As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as
nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of
folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right
now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it:
scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear
facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been
delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced
that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's
nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On
Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3
missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack
upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air
force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will
attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response
to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.
So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a
thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs'
cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also
deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.
Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will
be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon
Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90
days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North
Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make
radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as
the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such
Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range
Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an
attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio
weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US
invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point
of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down
Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the
attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless
enemies are fun.


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